POLITICS
Trump’s South Asia Strategy, What It Meant for Pakistan
By: Ali Afridi
Donald Trump’s presidency (2016–2020) was anything but predictable. Known for his unconventional policies and transactional approach to diplomacy, Trump made waves globally and South Asia was no exception. This region, steeped in political rivalries and immense strategic importance, found itself at the center of Trump’s foreign policy shifts. For Pakistan, the Trump era brought a mix of hope, frustration, and careful maneuvering.
Trump’s Rocky Start with Pakistan
When Trump took office, his stance toward Pakistan was harsh, to say the least. In 2018, he suspended $2 billion in security aid, accusing Pakistan of harboring terrorist groups and not pulling its weight in counterterrorism. His critical tweets added fuel to the fire, making it clear he wanted more accountability from Islamabad, especially regarding its role in Afghanistan.But by 2019, things began to change. Pakistan played a key role in pushing peace talks between the U.S. and the Afghan Taliban. Trump took notice, calling Prime Minister Imran Khan a “good friend” and showing a softer, more collaborative side. This was a major shift from his earlier hostility.
The Kashmir Mediation Drama
One of Trump’s boldest moves in South Asia was his offer to mediate the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan. In July 2019, during a meeting with Imran Khan, Trump claimed Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi had asked him to help facilitate talks—something India quickly denied. For Pakistan, this was a rare diplomatic win, as it has long sought international involvement in Kashmir. But it also revealed Trump’s limits. India’s outright rejection of the offer underscored its firm stance that Kashmir is a bilateral issue, not one for outsiders. Things escalated just weeks later when India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status by scrapping Article 370. This move triggered a fresh wave of tensions in the region and put Trump’s mediation claims to the test.
Pakistan’s Diplomatic Response
India’s move on Kashmir drew sharp criticism from Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan labeled it illegal and spotlighted human rights abuses in Kashmir during a fiery UN speech. But beyond strong words, Pakistan’s response was largely confined to diplomacy. Critics argued that Islamabad lacked a solid strategy to counter India’s actions effectively, especially with lukewarm support from global players like the U.S. Geopolitical realities played a big part. Trump’s administration was keen on strengthening ties with India to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. This left Pakistan in a tough spot, further highlighting its precarious position in U.S. foreign policy.
U.S.-India Relations: A Growing Nexus
Trump’s presidency saw a clear tilt toward India. High-profile events like the “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas and defense deals worth billions showcased the deepening partnership. The U.S. and India shared a common goal: countering China’s rise. For Pakistan, this shift forced a reevaluation of its relationship with the U.S. and prompted a search for alternative allies.
Afghanistan: A Silver Lining
Not everything was bleak for Pakistan. Trump’s focus on ending the war in Afghanistan gave Islamabad an opportunity to reassert itself regionally. Pakistan played a critical role in facilitating peace talks between the U.S. and the Taliban, leading to the 2020 Doha Agreement. This temporary diplomatic win improved U.S.-Pakistan ties and allowed Islamabad to position itself as a key player in regional stability.
Lessons for Pakistan
Trump’s transactional style highlighted some tough truths for Pakistan. Cooperation with the U.S. was often fleeting and came with strings attached. Meanwhile, Trump’s closeness with India emphasized the widening gap in Islamabad-Washington relations.
What can Pakistan learn from this?
- Strategic Independence: Relying too much on any single power—like the U.S.—is risky. Pakistan needs stronger ties with players like China, Russia, and Turkey while keeping a balanced relationship with the West.
- Shaping Global Perception: Pakistan must address lingering negative narratives about terrorism and its role in the region.
- Economic Diplomacy: Boosting trade and investment with multiple countries will strengthen Pakistan’s global leverage.
- Regional Partnerships: Building better relations with neighbors like Afghanistan and Iran can make Pakistan a stabilizing force in South Asia.
Moving Forward
Trump’s presidency was a mixed experience for Pakistan—offering brief moments of collaboration but also exposing key vulnerabilities. While Trump’s Kashmir mediation efforts brought temporary hope, the fallout showed Pakistan cannot rely on external powers to solve core issues.The way forward? Pakistan must focus on building self-reliance, strengthening regional ties, and diversifying its global partnerships. In an unpredictable world, these steps will help safeguard its interests and ensure stability in the years to come.