TECHNOLOGY
NASA Tracks Monster Asteroid 2024 YR4 With 4.3% Chance of Moon Impact in 2032
Asteroid 2024 YR4, once feared to have the highest ever recorded impact risk with Earth, is now under renewed observation as NASA updates its probability of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032, to 4.3%.
Initially discovered in December 2024, the asteroid measures between 53 and 67 meters — about the size of a 10-story building. Earlier this year, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) captured its path, providing new data that allowed scientists to refine the object’s trajectory.
While 2024 YR4 previously raised alarms over a potential Earth strike with a 3.1% probability, NASA’s updated analysis has ruled that out, reducing the chance to a negligible 0.004% as of February 2025.
Now, although the focus has shifted to the Moon, scientists reassure that even a collision with the lunar surface will not affect its orbit or pose any threat to human life. Dr. Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, emphasized that “the Moon remains a secure object when it comes to asteroid impacts.”