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BMI Report Predicts Imran Khan’s Continued Imprisonment Despite Legal Wins

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Business Monitor International (BMI), an arm of the Fitch credit ratings agency, has predicted that incarcerated PTI leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future despite his successful legal appeals. This forecast was part of BMI’s latest country risk report for Pakistan, which includes predictions extending to 2033.

The report came shortly after an Islamabad district and sessions court accepted the appeals filed by Khan and his spouse against their conviction in the Iddat case, which was the last existing legal case keeping the PTI founder in jail at that time. Additionally, his sentences in the two Toshakhana cases were suspended, and he was acquitted by the Islamabad High Court (IHC) in the cipher case. Khan was also acquitted in several other cases filed against him since the events of May 9, 2023, when his first arrest caused nationwide riots.

However, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) re-arrested Khan and his spouse in a new Toshakhana case shortly after his acquittal in the Iddat case, leaving his possible release from prison uncertain. BMI’s report stated, “Although opposition leader Imran Khan has recently won several legal appeals, we expect that he will remain in prison over the foreseeable future.”

The report noted that analysts were surprised when judges, expected to side with the government, quashed two of the legal cases against Khan. BMI elaborated that “even in the unlikely event that Pakistan’s usually government-friendly judicial system overturned all of the over 100 charges against Khan, we expect that the government would bring a new case against him rather than allow the popular opposition leader to go free.”

Regarding the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) program, BMI predicted that the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government would remain in power over the coming 18 months and succeed in implementing IMF-mandated fiscal reforms. The firm cited two key reasons for this expectation: the support of powerful entities behind the PML(N)-led government and the inability of Khan’s supporters to organize a large-scale protest movement.

BMI also wrote that the government is only likely to collapse in the event of a sharp increase in violence or a painful economic crisis prompting widespread protests. It predicted that fresh elections are unlikely, as another election could result in Khan’s allies gaining a parliamentary majority.

On economic reforms, BMI forecasted that Pakistan’s real GDP growth will average 3.5% over the next decade. However, it cautioned that falling agricultural production, currency weakness, and political instability could easily reoccur, affecting growth. The report also expected political risk to remain elevated, putting pressure on the rupee.

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