The Taliban’s Crumbling Control

By: Ali Afridi

Afghanistan under the Taliban might appear stable from the outside, but beneath the surface, the reality is much more complicated. The regime’s survival hasn’t come from effective governance or public support, but rather from international financial aid that’s now rapidly disappearing. Internal divisions, economic hardships, and worsening diplomatic relations are quietly pushing Afghanistan closer to crisis.

Inside the Taliban, deep divisions are growing. At one end, there are ideological hardliners centered in Kandahar, led by Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada, who push policies of strict isolation, sharply limiting women’s rights and blocking international engagement. On the other end, leaders in Kabul realize this path is unsustainable, yet they lack the strength to openly challenge Akhundzada’s authority. This internal struggle creates tension and confusion within the government itself.

Financial troubles make these divisions worse. Afghanistan’s economy has depended heavily on foreign aid, particularly from the United States. Under President Biden, the Taliban-led government received roughly $40 million per week. But with President Trump now in office and USAID programs halted, the Taliban faces enormous pressure. Without this crucial funding, maintaining even basic governance becomes nearly impossible, further aggravating internal disagreements.

The Taliban’s relationships abroad are also deteriorating rapidly, especially with Pakistan once a critical ally. Pakistan is increasingly frustrated by the Taliban’s unwillingness to control the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group launching attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan territory. The violence surged by 70% in 2024 alone, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths. Pakistan responded harshly, conducting airstrikes within Afghanistan, imposing economic sanctions, and deporting thousands of Afghan refugees. Yet, the Taliban stubbornly dismiss these concerns as Pakistan’s own issues, effectively shattering their previously strong ties.

Relations with other key countries like China and India are similarly strained. China, despite being keenly interested in Afghanistan’s rare minerals and strategic geographic location, remains cautious due to security threats from groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Beijing fears instability spreading into Xinjiang, complicating any major investments. India, while tentatively engaging with the Taliban primarily due to mutual distrust of Pakistan, remains deeply critical of the regime’s human rights abuses and restrictions on women’s education. India’s withdrawal of diplomatic and economic resources since 2021 underscores a lack of genuine partnership.

Further complicating matters, the United States under President Trump is adopting a tougher stance. Influential figures like Elon Musk openly question the wisdom of financially supporting a regime accused of oppressing women and sheltering terrorists. U.S. intelligence suggests that the administration is seriously considering cutting all remaining aid to Afghanistan, hoping this move might destabilize and eventually topple the Taliban.

In essence, Afghanistan under the Taliban is becoming increasingly fragile. Their strict ideology, prioritizing isolation and exclusion, makes sustainable governance nearly impossible. Without significant internal change, the Taliban’s power is likely to erode. The early signs of collapse are already apparent, and unless there’s a fundamental shift toward inclusivity and engagement, Afghanistan’s future remains deeply uncertain.